ESEA Invite Season 21 Week 7: Metalworks

This week of ESEA Invite should be the finest yet. We have a tense playoff battle between 20b, -bird noises-, and Running with Scizors, while froyotech battles the other two top teams. This week the fly in the ointment is that we're on Metalworks. Teams often dislike playing Metalworks and the map tends to be slow paced and chokey, but the combination of it being an unfavourable practice map and the defensive gameplay does lend itself to upset results. This is the map that saw Ascent (now Ronin) win against S20 froyotech, just after losing themselves to TSU (now 20b)!

cp_metalworks

ESEA Invite Season 21

Week 7: Metalworks

-bird noises-    vs.    The Bugs    

Running with Scizors    vs.    Street Hoops eSports

    froyotech    vs.    EVL Gaming

The Bugs    vs.    The Grime

    EVL Gaming    vs.    -bird noises-         
             The Grime    vs.    Running with Scizors

-bird noises- vs. The Bugs

-bird noises- Week 1 loss to Hands Off has come back to bite them in the cloaca. It seems reasonable to count them out of the playoff run if they can't secure a victory against The Bugs on Metalworks, and ideally they'll be looking for an upset against EVL as well this week. There could still be hope if they were to take maps from the other playoff contenders in the final weeks, but they are teetering on the edge. This match is absolutely vital, and there can be no risk of an upset if -bird noises- want to claim the 4th place spot.

Roster Showdown

          indust          Cole          

   sighguy          mausy   

               Voll          goldfish       

      Hellbent   Digi           

   Linkuser   mu           

                 Vand  newspeak        

Map Analysis

Both of these teams are newcomers to Invite. -bird noises- and The Bugs have retained the core of their roster from the top end of IM and Open respectively, and so have little top level experience on specific maps. The only interesting piece of data about these teams on Metalworks is a fixture last season between playoff contenders -bird noises- and Running with Scizors, which ended 5-3 but only after an incredible 3-0 first half from sighguy. I don't put much stock in this single result, but sighguy has had a breakthrough season so far and if he feels at home on Metalworks then it bodes very well for his team.

Predictions

The Bugs have been struggling this season to match up against the playoff contending teams, while -bird noises- have been over-performing recently after a slow start. Metalworks is such a foreign map to me that I am struggling to argue all of these predictions, but I consider -bird noises- to be reasonably strong favourites in this fixture. sighguy should be able to pound on the middles, and goldfish's ubers have a tendency to overextend which should be punished on such a choke-centric map.

Running with Scizors 
vs. Street Hoops eSports

Both teams need this win to make playoffs. Whilst it is still technically possible for the loser to come back, it would require a situation so convoluted that this is realistically a fight to the death for both teams. Street Hoops eSports have been on the wrong end of some upsets this season, but having made recent roster changes their odds are looking up after their close victory over EVL. Running with Scizors, on the other hand, are barely in the running at all. They need a blast of positive results to end the season and this has to be the beginning. On paper this fixture seems like a foregone conclusion; Street Hoops have their opposition outclassed in every role beyond some promising performances from MrMuffinz and sen. Nonetheless they've found ways of throwing maps against lower level opposition earlier in the season, and are only now starting to read from the same page.

Roster Showdown

                 Skye          cozen           

         Jarrett          duwatna 

                    Deathy          Showstopper      

      Rekuso   ash        

     EvilMrMuffinz   cyzer              

             sen  alec        

Map Analysis

Street Hoops had a surprising victory over Ascent (now Ronin) last season on Metalworks, as Showstopper and xalox won the spam warfare by a considerable margin and their scouts were able to clean up in teamfights. ash and Rekuso should have an interesting fight on the flanks and on midfights, as this map can be a roamer's paradise or end up being a slugfest, tying them down to exchange spam.

Predictions

Street Hoops should be able to end the playoff run here for the cutting utensil enthusiasts, barring an upset against the elite teams in Invite (or Street Hoops/-bird noises- beefing in a style only previously seen by LEGO in Premiership). duwatna and the soldiers from 20b have more experience, deathmatch, and synergy at their peak, which should allow them to take this map. A real vulnerability could be the last pushes, and if showstopper leads one fail-uber too many into a Scizors' defense then they might find some easier rounds, but if they can execute effectively they should find this an easy map and an easy road to 4th seed.

froyotech vs. EVL Gaming

froyotech failed horribly the last time these two teams met. Planting the seed for the EVL hype this season, the previous Gullywash game was one of the rare occasions that b4nny's maincalling and ego caused him a terrible loss. froyotech were in control for the vast majority of the map, but kept failing pushes to 2nd, leaving them without enough points on the board. With time dwindling and a Golden Cap on the cards, froyotech decided to repush into last in an unfavourable situation for the win. They wiped and were rolled all the way to a loss, with only seconds left. EVL were gifted the win after an otherwise strong performance from froyotech. EVL have not looked on par with Ronin, getting annihilated in their match on Sunshine 5-0 and losing 4-2 to 20b. With the newest roster changes for froyotech, they should be in a good position to take revenge on EVL.

Roster Showdown

                 ninjanick          Nursey                 

          Muma          Hassassin 

          b4nny          aim             

          paddie   botmode     

        clockwork   slemnish        

        Freestate  arekk            

Map Analysis

froyotech, before the large shuffle at the end of 2015, was not a particularly strong team on Metalworks. Like Granary, the map tends to be slower with more spam, and doesn't allow their scout-centric gamestyle to be executed as easily. During fixtures with less importance they also tend to have a lack of patience, which can hurt them on maps with well-defined choke points and a lot of spam. The new iteration of froyotech this season brings new blood; this has seemed to focus them more than in previous seasons as the new players are still eager for online victories. They will not be as likely as previous iterations of froyotech to yield to the boredom of a slow game.

Predictions

Given how close the previous map was between these two teams, and how much I feel froyotech threw in the final minutes, they are the favourites to take the map. EVL have been slightly over-hyped since that previous win, and gave a more accurate view of their skill level in their recent incredibly close 4-2 loss against Street Hoops. They certainly can upset froyotech and Ronin, but those results should be viewed as upsets rather than their average level of play. As to whether they can pull out another upset on Metalworks? I don't think so, but the map does favour them. I think it's unlikely, but possible, for EVL to take this game. froyotech should win but not by much.

EVL Gaming vs. -bird noises-

EVL Gaming will have no trouble making playoffs after their excellent start to the season, and so this game only acts as an opportunity for -bird noises- to steal points and boost their own playoff run. -bird noises- appear to be performing just underneath the level of Street Hoops and EVL, but their consistent performances could grant an upset if EVL don't feel comfortable on Metalworks. After seeing the EVL vs froyotech, and -bird noises- vs The Bugs games, we'll have a better understanding of whether EVL are at risk of bleeding points here, but as they haven't happened yet I'll take a stab in the dark.

Roster Showdown

                Nursey          indust             

     Hassassin          sighguy    

            aim          Voll       

          botmode   Hellbent      

     slemnish   Linkuser  

             arekk  Vand         

Map Analysis

EVL's games last season on Metalworks comprised a default win and a 5-1 against the stand-out worst team in Invite. Likewise -bird noises- have only faced Running with Scizors when both teams were in IM, winning 5-3. There is no telling how either team will play this week, but looking at their performances in their other Week 7 fixture will shed some light.

Predictions

I do not think this fixture is an opportunity for -bird noises- to upset a playoff team. They need some kind of upset in the upcoming weeks to overtake the re-energised Street Hoops, but I don't think they have much of a chance here. The more they can shut down Linkuser and arekk, the more they will amplify their chances, but this map seems unlikely to fall to EVL. The soldier combo of aim and botmode should run circles around their counterparts.

Ronin.gg vs. froyotech

The last time the two superpowers of Invite met, it was on Product. This time, Metalworks. Are they fated to only meet on fringe maps? Perhaps, but it only adds to the mystery of how these two teams will match up come playoffs. Their previous clash saw the less experienced froyotech team come out on top, as the i52 scout combo of b4nny and clockwork tore through Ronin's heavy classes. Muma played fantastically as well, able to pump out damage, guarded by corsa and paddie. The roster has changed since then, and froyotech have been left with a slightly weaker scout pair but a much stronger combo. This will be an amazing match between these two teams, and give us another indication of who truly sits at the top of Invite.

Roster Showdown

                Phorofor          ninjanick            

      bdonski          Muma    

            rando          b4nny        

           Ma3la   paddie      

       shrugger   clockwork  

                yomps  Freestate        

Map Analysis

Metalworks throws a curveball into this clash of the titans. The map is reasonably strong for Ronin, but there's no telling how froyotech will take to it. Their performance against EVL will give clearer markers: if they can't beat EVL on this map, there is no hope against Ronin. Nonetheless I do not expect EVL to win, and although froyotech may struggle on Metalworks more than Product, this game is going to be very close.

Predictions

This is likely to be a slow, ground out win. These two teams are so close that unless froyotech are awful on Metalworks (which we can't tell at this point in time), the map is likely to be decided on small mistakes within the game rather than overlying trends. A failed push, a backcap, an impatient decision from a scout. These are the factors that are more likely to give an edge to one of these two teams, rather than one roster outclassing the other. On Metalworks, Ronin have the upper hand by a little; clockwork will be less able to engage through the chokes, and Muma's damage should be contained to an area. This game is very tough to call, but I'll give it to Ronin by a whisker. Either team could take it, and the winner is likely to take 1st seed.