ETF2L Premiership Week 7 Fixtures

Also posted here: http://etf2l.org/2016/03/07/sideshows-view-week-7-fixtures/

What a truly ridiculous season of Premiership. Every single team can make playoffs, and it's the final week. As far as I'm aware, this has never happened before in a season of ETF2L. Of course, for some teams it is more probably than others; for Foreskings in 8th place it would require some form of miracle for them to take them into the fourth place spot, and Planet Express and Infused are likely to cripple each other in at a desperate scramble to the playoff spot. Quite frankly though, anything is possible after last week's results. 

We saw dd+5 abs take both maps away from LEGO, winning the mids on Gullywash to steal a victory and riding the tilt all the way to a comeback on Product. Full credit to chappie, qnx, and dd5f, but it was one of the biggest throws I have ever seen from LEGO. Their inability to close out the maps, even when 2-0 up on Product, has cost them an otherwise-guaranteed playoff spot.

Infused were able to take Gullywash 5-0 from Publiclir, exploiting the map problems and midfight issues that I outlined for a resounding victory. They were unable to take Product though, as atomic and fl1p tore Infused apart.

Planet Express made it much closer than expected too against a nerdRage lacking kaidus' input. Planet Express came out on top of every midfight on Gullywash, along with the first few on Product, to give themselves a large advantage. nerdRage also failed the majority of their last pushes to give Planet Express as many opportunities as possible, but in the end the superior team came out on top.

ETF2L Premiership Season 23

Week 7

       dd+5 abs    vs.    Foreskings     

        Perilous Gaming    vs.    nerdRage                  

      Planet Express    vs.    Team Infused         

        LEGO    vs.    Publiclir.se 

We find ourselves, at the end of this journey, on Product and Badlands. The staple of competitive TF2 makes a return at the end of the season and will form the arena of death for many Premiership playoff hopefuls. The top two teams face each other as a preview for the playoffs, and none of the other teams can hope to catch them in terms of points. For the others this is a desperate scrap for survival. 3rd and 4th play each other, as do 6th and 7th. The potential for dd+5 abs to skyrocket from 8th to 3rd place in the space of two fixtures is very high. The reality of that blows my mind, and I doubt the 5 abs can believe it either.

dd+5 abs vs. Foreskings

dd+5 abs may well have one of the most ridiculous stories in Premiership. A team barely able to qualify before the season after a mediocre performance in the High playoffs, this team has shot up the tables. Their ability to do so has been purely from two fixtures: their game against Infused where they managed to pull two extra points than would be expected, and their incredible upset last week against LEGO. Compared to the other lower Premiership teams, dd+5 abs' ability to close out maps against their opponents has given them a huge advantage. If they can take more than 4 points from this fixture, they're quite likely to make playoffs in fourth. If they destroy their fixture against the Israeli team, they could well make third. This is a phenomenal season for dd+5 abs, who I still expect would lose in tournaments against most Premiership teams. Foreskings have traded maps with every team in lower Premiership apart from a tight GC against Planet Express, where they were forced to play with merc Sorrow. They will not be pushovers, whatever their current spot in the tables suggest.

Roster Showdown

 Honey Badger          Zangetsu         

chappie          Spary   

      qnx          wackey

          dd5f   JackyLegs

          ixy   Shulqiple

   Sjoeberg  s0rex        

Map Analysis

dd+5 abs had a monstrous comeback on Product last week against LEGO. Down 2-0, chappie, qnx, and dd5f went on a killing spree and won the majority of the teamfights with their projectiles. This was, in large part, due to iZon and sorex not being positioned correctly to deny their aggression and led to a stupidly large amount of deaths for Condom. Shulqiple and s0rex have much more passive styles than the LEGO scouts, but they also have quite significantly worse deathmatch. They're likely to have a more classic structure as well, with Spary taking a large amount of heals and JackyLegs playing the flank against dd5f. Interestingly, Badlands was the first ban every time for dd+5 abs during the High playoffs. They did not want to play it at all during S22, and lost by windifference to nerdRage at the beginning of S23 (although that tells us very little). On the other hand, Foreskings won against Publiclir on Badlands at the beginning of this season, with JackyLegs and wackey performing incredibly.

Predictions

Map data in TF2 is always abominable. After over 5 months of these two teams playing within the top 16, there is almost nothing to gauge their ability. Before I start a tirade on how we need to transition to a tournament-based scene rather than relying on leagues, I'll just use this to insert a caveat. Although it would seem, from map bans and shaky performances, that one of dd+5 abs' worst maps is Badlands, and it remains a solid pick for Foreskings, it may all have changed over the months in between. Nonetheless, I do believe Foreskings will win on Badlands, as I think they're able to consistently perform against Premiership teams and have better teamplay than dd+5 abs. On Product though, this is a mystery. Before last week I would have felt reasonably safe backing Foreskings to win on both maps, but given their propensity to draw against opponents and dd+5 abs stellar comeback against LEGO, I think it's a toss-up. Overall I think it's unlikely that dd+5 abs will be able to take 4 or more points from this fixture; a draw will see them end the season on 17 points, relying on one of LEGO or Publiclir to crush the other.

Perilous Gaming vs. nerdRage

An interesting preview to the playoffs. Perilous will end in 1st place if they take 5 or 6 points from this fixture, and that requires a victory on Product due to Golden Cap rules. 

Roster Showdown

                    kos          Permzilla         

    spudd          kaidus 

  Silentes          kaptain 

    Sideshow   Drackk      

      Thalash   Stark        

                  Astt  Hafficool        

Map Analysis

Perilous avoided having to face Foreskings last week on Product, which gives us no data to judge them on and robs them of some crucial practice. nerdRage were lacking calls during their game against Planet Express, but still won every round (granted the first two went to overtime for both teams). Their scout combo of Stark and Hafficool looks very strong, and Drackk was doing solid work on the flank. With the return of strong calling to the combo, they should be able to take this map. Badlands will be more open, as a good map for both of these teams it is likely to be a drawn-out, patient affair which much riding on the midfights.

Predictions

Perilous have to win Product in order to finish in first place this season. This is a tall order for the second place team, and will have to overcome a stronger flank on one of their worse maps. It is likely to go the way of nerdRage comfortably even though each individual round will doubtless feel close, as is the way with Product. Badlands in any other setting would be a fierce map, and will be should Perilous take Product. However, if Perilous Gaming's ability to take first place has vanished by the time Badlands rolls around, I imagine we'll see the teams testing each other out for playoffs, rather than expending all their effort to win.

LEGO vs. Publiclir.se

LEGO severely dropped the ball last week. Not only did they lose their grip on Gullywash, throwing away every midfight without dmoule making a shadow of an impact, but they then lost a 2-0 lead on Product. They've had a very inconsistent season so far, as the only team to take a map from Perilous so far but otherwise looking no further ahead than any other team. They also managed to beat nerdRage on Sunshine in the ZOWIE 16, but their inability to perform against weaker opponents is crippling them. LEGO are currently sat in 4th place, overtaken by the team they're fighting this week, Publiclir. One of these teams is guaranteed to be on at least 18 points, and if they split the points fairly evenly then they may both make playoffs. If one team dominates the other though, the loser will probably leave the playoff spot.

Roster Showdown

               Condom          ondkaja         

      Dr. Phil          Smirre

                Josh          Medico      

     dmoule   AMS  

          sorex   atomic  

             iZon  fl1p        

Map Analysis

LEGO played very strangely against dd+5 abs on Product. Josh took ubers but was also the only person covering the flank, and neither of the scouts were positioned defensively to guard Condom. dmoule had almost no impact, constantly distracted by aggression from qnx and dd5f, and the team generally looked a mess. For the first two rounds they were carried by the fragging ability of their players, but as soon as they were on the defensive they collapsed. Publiclir scouts showed their ability on Product against Infused, but now they can't rely on deathmatch to carry them through. They need Medico and AMS to deliver; both of their soldiers have good deathmatch but often throw their lives away to gain position. On Product, they would be better off adapting this slightly and trying to pump out the damage and frags in their bombs, as they're unlikely to be facing iZon or sorex on the high ground. Badlands should favour LEGO. Their midfights are strong, with dmoule in his zone, and Publiclir have looked weak on this map before.

Predictions

It's difficult to tell which LEGO we'll see this week. If the team has fixed their issues on Product, deciding to put iZon and sorex in more pocket roles and allowing both Josh and dmoule to play heavily on the flank, they should be able to mop up AMS and Medico. I don't quite believe we'll see a huge reversal in their style in the space of a few days however, so I think it's quite possible that Publiclir will take this first map. If they do make the changes though, this should be a fairly simple win for LEGO. They have the deathmatch advantage and (usually) better co-ordination than Publiclir, but have been so inconsistent as of late. Badlands I have to give to LEGO. Unless the tilt hits them harder than a freight train, they should be winning most of the midfights and rolling this into 3 points. Overall I think that LEGO are likely to take 6 points from this game, but I'm banking on large improvements on Product. If those aren't implemented then 3 points apiece could see both of these teams in playoffs.

Planet Express vs. Team Infused

How often, in the final week of a season, can the 6th place team play the 7th for a chance at playoffs?! It's a sign of a Premiership that has been fiercely competitive and truly unpredictable at times, and so Planet Express and Team Infused find themselves in this situation. No less than 6 points is required to take these teams from low Premiership to a playoff spot. One must become the sacrificial lamb (or sacrificial sheepy) if either of these teams want to upset LEGO or Publiclir. One wins, or they both fall. Not that this is some kind of partnership, these teams are not going to work together for the greater good! This is competition! These teams would rather both wallow in a relegation battle than allow the other to prosper. Even if one team does win, they also need a healthy dose of luck, and are hoping that LEGO/Publiclir don't trade points and dd+5 abs gets demolished. It's unlikely all around but sheepy and Thaigrr are hoping against hope.

Roster Showdown

       Nursey          skeej         

       iikq          adysky

 DamnEasy          Quik           

    zoob   Thaigrr

    sheepy   Hank        

            pierz   Dennia         

Map Analysis

As soon as we look at Product and Badlands, there is serious doubt that Infused can make anything happen in this fixture. Their performance on Product against Publiclir, when they had already smashed Publiclir 5-0 on Gullywash, was abysmal. Hank and Dennia are one of the worst scout partnerships in Premiership, despite a long history with each other, and don't really hold a candle to atomic and fl1p, or sheepy and pierz. Likewise when we look at their Badlands performance earlier in the season against LEGO, they got destroyed 5-0 in 10 minutes, wiping on every midfight and getting rolled to last. They lasted ten minutes! This is a team that was finding its feet in Week 1 however and I'd expect them to be better than that now. I believe that was a singularly bad map for them, but it doesn't fill me with hope! Planet Express on the other hand are reasonably good at Product. They had a decent showing against nerdRage last week, losing 3-0 but taking the two early rounds to overtime for both teams. Their scouts played a good game, along with synced aggression from the soldier combo. iikq had a bad performance, overextending far too many times, but he won't be punished as hard against Infused.

Predictions

It seems quite likely, given the maps, that we will see Planet Express with the majority of the points from this fixture. Product should go their way fairly easily, with sheepy and pierz shutting down the opposition and iikq's overextension granting the team more damage rather than more deaths. On Badlands it will be more even if Infused can avoid wiping on mid every round, but that map should go towards Planet Express as well in fast-paced fashion. They're likely to take 6 points from this game, although some form of Golden Cap on Badlands is not out of the question as the rounds rack up. If Infused can make playoffs here it will be a miracle; their main goal should be to deny the aspirations of Planet Express.

On The Point: with numlocked

The next part in my long interview series with huge personalities within the scene.

Questions involve his career on demoman, iseries, crazy LoL drama in Turkey and his thoughts on Overwatch and the future of competitive TF2.

ESEA Invite Season 21 Week 6: Granary

EVL Gaming are about to be tested. Are they truly a member of the elite Invite teams, or did they fluke their way into the company of froyotech and Ascent? Earlier in the season they upset froyotech and Street Hoops to put themselves at their current 8-1 record, but both of those results seemed to be due to poor performances from EVL's opponents rather than an excellent performance from the upcoming side. These teams have since gathered themselves and the next few weeks could see a large shift in the placement of the top five teams. -bird noises- are also hanging on to the fourth place spot at the moment, above Street Hoops, and are the only team with a decent chance of upsetting the obvious top four for playoffs.

cp_granary

ESEA Invite Season 21

Week 6: Granary

                   EVL Gaming    vs.    Street Hoops eSports     

         Ascent    vs.    The Grime   

 Street Hoops eSports    vs.    The Bugs                   

                  The Bugs    vs.    Running with Scizors 

    The Grime    vs.    EVL Gaming    
-bird noises-    vs.    Ascent         

It's Granary week in ESEA. A polarising map in the upper echelons of Invite; it's often the better teams that dislike it the most. Committing hard on mid is regularly the best course of action, but it leaves teams completely locked in if things go south and makes Granary midfights even more important than usual. If teams can't figure out how to deal with aggressive soldiers, or their own aggression is denied by scouts on top of the crates, it can snowball into a huge lead in a matter of minutes. Equally, this map has the potential to be a slow grind to the finish if the mids are not decisive.

EVL Gaming vs. Street Hoops eSports

This is showstopper and co.'s chance for revenge. The first week of Season 21 saw EVL storm to an early upset on Snakewater, taking the first half 3-1 before 20b (then TSU) could react, and then stalling out the second half for a tight 4-3 victory. Street Hoops have since changed their roster, hopefully allowing them to fix issues which hampered their ability to play earlier in the season. They'll be looking to take this map and regain the fourth place spot, but another victory for EVL would push them further into contention for a top seed finish.

Roster Showdown

        Nursey          cozen         

Hassassin          duwatna  

               aim          showstopper

    botmode   ash           

   slemnish   alec           

        arekk  cyzer        

Map Analysis

Street Hoops played against Getawhale Fanclub (now EVL) at the end of last season on Granary. The rosters only vaguely resemble their counterparts this week, as the core three players remain the same but the teams have replaced those around them. All of the other games that Street Hoops played on Granary last season started incredibly slowly; this was caused by patient play in the first half which decayed by the second half, opening the map up. In the games that Hoops were able to keep slow, they came out on top overall. They famously knocked out froyotech last season from the ESEA playoffs on Granary, after froyotech were forced to use sub seymour. Slowing the game down to a grind allowed Street Hoops to drive it to overtime against a superior team on their worst map, and the same strategy will probably be applied this week. On the other hand, EVL have no experience playing Granary in matches outside their game against TSU last season, but consider it one of their better maps.

Predictions

Although these teams are around the same level, EVL seem to have cooler heads. They lack the tendency of 20b to throw pushes away by rushing opportunities, and are able to support each other better to ensure their issues don't snowball into a loss. If Street Hoops are unable to play their patient game for the full time (and this game may well go to 60 minutes) then rushing pushes on Granary will certainly cause them to lose. On the other hand, perhaps the natural chokey nature of Granary will encourage them to play a safer style and grind out a win. This match has large repercussions for the playoff run, and how we view EVL's season. They have to prove that their run so far has not been a product of froyotech and Street Hoops throwing, and Hoops have to pull away from -bird noises-. My prediction is a victory for EVL Gaming, as I don't think Street Hoops will be able to play a structured, safe game for the full time.

The Grime vs. EVL Gaming

The Grime are up against two top teams this week after changing their roster (-sezco -phlps -unf), and look to be an improved team. Moving dingo and corsa into these roles should allow them to perform against the better teams in Invite, and although they cannot make playoffs at this point, they can certainly change the landscape of the top four. I can't see them taking the game against Ascent which is why I have not included it in my preview of this week, but against EVL they have a reasonable chance of an upset. They definitely go into this map as the underdogs, but this is another test for EVL. They have to keep up their ability to take maps consistently from the lower Invite teams in order to stay at the top of the field.

Roster Showdown

                 kig          Nursey         

          dingo          Hassassin 

  farnsworth          aim             

        Dagger   botmode     

       highfive   slemnish      

        corsa  arekk        

Map Analysis

Granary tends to naturally enforce more structure on teams, due to the segmented layout of the map. With the added yard area compared to other maps, bookended by choke points but without a control point, it stops teams bleeding in transitional fights between mid and second. This could pay off for The Grime, who have had considerably less time to build teamwork compared to EVL. EVL will be happy to play The Grime on Granary though, with the aim/botmode combo and Hassassin's almost omniscient sticky-trap usage amplified on this map.

Predictions

Although The Grime have a small chance of upsetting EVL here and creating ripples in how the playoff teams stack up, they certainly aren't the favourites. If they can build up some momentum through dominant midfights, controlling the crates with highfive and corsa, they may be able to roll it into a few rounds. I'm expecting EVL to take the map, but it should be one of the more difficult games they'll face against lower Invite teams this season.

-bird noises- vs. Ascent

-bird noises- were promoted from IM this season, and started off with an incredibly rough few weeks. Their schedule pit them against froyotech, Ascent, and EVL within the first two weeks, and they also had a surprisingly bad performance against Hands Off on Snakewater. They have proved their worth after that beginning though with excellent performances against other low-mid Invite teams, even upsetting Street Hoops eSports on Sunshine. They sit in fourth place at 5-5 currently, with two top Invite teams left to fight. This game against Ascent is one they shouldn't expect to win, but will give us an insight into whether this team can put up any sort of fight against top Invite teams.

Roster Showdown

                 indust          Phorofor         

     sighguy          bdonski 

            Voll          rando      

      Hellbent   Ma3la      

     Linkuser   shrugger  

             Vand  yomps        

Map Analysis

Ascent are regularly favourites in ESEA to win Granary games, but that can mostly be attributed to (old) froyotech's incompetence on that map. On the intercontinental stage they have average performances on the map, but it's definitely not a weak point for Ascent. They have an excellent soldier combo in Ma3la and rando, which should outperform Voll and Hellbent on this often soldier-centric map. They are completely comfortable playing a patient game and allowing their opponents to make mistakes, which should create opportunities for them against less experienced -bird noises-.

Predictions

-bird noises- previously faced Ascent on Product, where they got crushed 4-0. They've also had poor performances against froyotech on Snakewater and Badlands, 5-0 both maps. While they have been able to hang with the teams slightly below that level (upset vs Hoops Sunshine, 3-4 against EVL Product), against the top two they seem to crumble fairly reliably. Although this is technically two playoff-spot teams playing against each other, it seems ludicrous to suggest -bird noises- have a good chance at an upset here. If they can it will rock Invite, but I'm not holding my breath.

Week 6 Fixtures: ETF2L Premiership Season 23

Also posted here: http://etf2l.org/2016/03/02/sideshows-view-week-6-fixtures/

The second to last week of ETF2L Season 23 is upon us, and surprisingly the playoff run is still open for almost every team. That certainly won't be true after this week, and four teams in contention will be incredibly disappointed with their results. Perhaps they shouldn't be, given that even the bottom of the table teams will have better records than their predecessors in most previous seasons. Teams have been trading maps like Pokemon cards recently, and it shows no signs of stopping.

cp_gullywash

koth_product

ETF2L Premiership Season 23

Week 6

dd+5 abs    vs.    LEGO     

         Foreskings    vs.    Perilous Gaming 

 Planet Express    vs.    nerdRage         

     Publiclir.se    vs.    Team Infused 

Our maps for this week are Gullywash and Product. Product always throws a curveball into the mix; as a completely different game-mode, teams practise koth less, and it also has quirks that may play to the team's strengths or cause vulnerabilities to show. Let's take a look at the fixtures this week and how the teams line up:

dd+5 abs vs. LEGO

LEGO have had a strange issue since the beginning of Season 22. It's certainly not one they have ever faced before then, wallowing at the bottom of Premiership or sandbagging in High without sorex and dmoule. The issue they're now facing is that they're over-rated. LEGO's 4th place finish in Season 22 was a close feat, their record of 6 wins to 8 losses edging out Serpents by 2 points. The hype began with their 'upset' performance against The Last Resort, and a Golden Cap loss against #tf2center, but they then went on to have a mediocre performance for the rest of the season. They've had a similarly mediocre beginning to Season 23, trading maps with Infused and Foreskings, but LEGO are beginning to pull away from the pack. Week 4 gave them 6 crucial points against Planet Express, and tying with Perilous last week was vital for Josh's crew. dd+5 abs have had reasonable showings against all of the lower level teams this season, but unfortunately haven't been able to convert many of the maps into points. They have to take all 6 points from this fixture and their game against Foreskings (along with a good dollop of luck) in order to make playoffs.

Roster Showdown

Honey Badger          Condom         

chappie          Dr. Phil

 qnx          Josh

    dd5f   dmoule

   ixy   sorex

Sjoeberg  iZon        

Map Analysis

Gullywash and Product have been good maps for LEGO over the past two seasons. They've managed to have close games against nerdRage and #tf2center on Product, and beat TLR on Gullywash along with taking #tf2center to a Golden Cap. They have slipped up a few times, notably against Perilous last week and during the Challengers Cup, but these are good maps for LEGO to solidify their position as the 3rd place ETF2L team. For dd+5 abs, they have very little history on these two maps. There is no reason to believe that dd+5 abs consider these maps strong for their team, but Product always produces closer results than 5cp maps.

Predictions

Let's go against the grain and tackle Product first. Due to the points distribution and rules for koth in ETF2L, this map can only be won or lost. The team making it to 3 rounds won will take all 3 points, and I cannot see this being dd+5 abs. I don't doubt that they will make it close, and this is an opportunity for chappie to show himself as an upcoming top level demoman, but dd5f will simply not be able to resist the urge to whip out his Market Gardener and [P-REC] BOOKMARK. The team doesn't have enough synergy in the way they push, and doesn't have the DM advantage on any role barring possibly chappie. LEGO should have those 3 points in the bag. Gullywash will be a close game, but with LEGO in control. They should be able to dominate on the midfights with superior soldier deathmatch, and sorex flanking should seal the deal. My prediction is that all 6 points will go to LEGO, and it will be a car-crash for them should they lose points on Gullywash (or even worse, Product). This should be the end for dd+5 abs' dreams of ETF2L playoffs.

Foreskings vs. Perilous Gaming

Perilous can now not be knocked out of their playoff spot. For them, it is simple a matter of which seed they take. The 'ladder' system of the playoffs puts a large emphasis on the seeding you get in the regular season, and being able to get a #1 seed would be a huge boost for Perilous. For that, they need all of the available points against Foreskings and nerdRage. At the very least, this week they'll be looking for points to make sure they finish 2nd. For Foreskings this fixture is incredibly important. The team outperformed moderate expectations this season and are unlikely contenders for the playoffs. They took a map from Publiclir, LEGO, and Infused, and if they can take 6 points from dd+5 abs next week then they would only need a generous gift from Perilous to make it to the finish line.

Roster Showdown

Zangetsu          kos         

Spary          spudd

 wackey          Silentes 

    JackyLegs   Sideshow     

   Shulqiple   Thalash     

     s0rex  Astt        

Map Analysis

Perilous are strong on Gullywash, and poor on Product. These are two of their most polar opposite maps, as shown through map bans and picks in recent cups, and results over the last two seasons. They should feel comfortable on both maps given the deathmatch advantage and ability for Thalash to snipe, but if Foreskings have been putting a lot of effort into Product there is potential for an upset here. Foreskings' history suggests a reasonable degree of proficiency on Gullywash, but their lack of time spent playing in Premiership or tournaments paints a muddy picture.

Predictions

This matchup should not come down to the maps. Although Foreskings has proved to be a mid-Premiership team, the team is heavily outclassed on every position bar the demoman and roamer role. On Gullywash, which both teams favour, this advantage should weigh heavily in favour of Perilous, and on Product the quirks of the map can be overcome with a large deathmatch advantage. The players to make the difference for Foreskings will have to be JackyLegs and s0rex: if they can put up performances alongside Spary, then Foreskings have a chance to take points. Foreskings have a high chance of leaving this fixture empty handed, but any upset is likely to take the full three points on Product.

Planet Express vs. nerdRage

nerdRage have been untouched since their Golden Cap on sunshine earlier in the season. It would be truly difficult for them to not finish in 1st place, but Perilous would be very happy if Planet Express could trip up kaidus' boys. Planet Express need as many points as possible to make playoffs and overtake Publiclir. They won't be expecting any points from this game against nerdRage, and will be hoping that LEGO crush Publiclir. Unfortunately that still puts them in a situation where Infused have to give Planet Express 4 more points than they give to Planet Express. It's technically possible, but this is almost definitely the end for Planet Express' playoff dreams. They need a miracle in this game.

Roster Showdown

             Nursey          Permzilla         

      iikq          kaidus

 DamnEasy          kaptain      

     zoob   Drackk

    pierz   Stark  

            sheepy  Hafficool        

Map Analysis

Gullywash is a potential weakness for nerdRage. Not because they're incompetent at the map, but because other teams tend to be favour this map above others. When against LEGO, Perilous, or previous top teams like TLR and #tf2center, nerdRage have had much closer games than on other maps. Planet Express seem to have no such prowess on Gullywash however, so nerdRage should still easily crush them. Product is classically a map that scouts will dominate on, along with demomen. pierz and sheepy are very strong, but are a level below Stark and Hafficool. The disciplined pocket role that Hafficool plays works perfectly on Product, and while Stark and Pierz are both likely to go ham, the difference is going to be made in Haffi's clean-up and denial ability. Planet Express (though I've seen none of their games on Product) should be a good team on koth; their team-fight ability and flow is one of the stronger elements of their game. I expect them to put up a reasonable show, but still be outclassed by nerdRage and struggle against the forward hold.

Predictions

It would be outrageous for Planet Express to take points from this fixture. It will require an incredibly bad day from nerdRage, with godly performances from pierz and sheepy, to put points on the board on Product. Gullywash is a lost cause. Focusing on Product will also have the advantage of preparing Planet Express for the Week 7 official against Team Infused, which is the last chance saloon for zoob's gang of misfits.

Publiclir.se vs. Team Infused

These two teams hold a lot of power in this Premiership playoff race. Publiclir are in the best position to take fourth place, currently in 4th place with upcoming games against mid-Premiership teams Infused and LEGO. Team Infused have even easier games, but unfortunately even taking all 12 points from Publiclir and Planet Express might not take them into a playoff spot. It would be an incredible tale for Infused, if they were to save their best performances until the end of the season to rocket from last place to a playoff spot. Is this reasonable for Infused? Do they have the ability to beat Publiclir and Planet Express? I would argue yes. Infused have some very serious issues with their team, and when they're uncoordinated it's awful to watch, but their performances against LEGO, Perilous, and Foreskings give them hope. Infused may buckle completely against these upcoming teams (as they did against dd+5 abs on Granary) and define themselves as purely an upset team, but they still have it with them to end this season very respectably.

Roster Showdown

     ondkaja          skeej         

 Smirre          adysky

 Medico          Quik      

    AMS   Thaigrr

    atomic   Hank       

            fl1p   Dennia        

Map Analysis

Publiclir seem shaky on these maps. Overall, the trend for Publiclir has been upwards since bringing in ondkaja on medic, but both of these teams have serious issues with cohesion. They have a lot of players who make individual plays, and these maps will be incredibly messy. Product in particular promises to be a ridiculous affair, as neither of these teams have the discipline to avoid chasing frags and overextending once they're in possession of the point. 

Predictions

Gullywash should be a very close game. Publiclir are a better team but perform worse on this map, while Infused should be the underdog but have a much better chance than the tables suggest. Medico and AMS get overzealous on the midfights, while atomic and fl1p seem to munch damage leading to frequent collapses against teams with better mids. Infused have an opportunity to punch slightly above their weight and take both maps from this fixture, but they have to be on their A-game. Sloppiness from both teams is expected, but this game has real repercussions for how all of the mid-low Premiership teams stack up. At the end of the day, Publiclir are in a far better position to take playoffs; this may provide the motivation they'll need to out-perform their map flaws.